"The presidential race between Trump and Harris turned out to be a lot less exciting than expected. At the time of writing, the tally for Trump stands at 295 electoral votes. He will probably even finish on 311 electoral votes. That is more than in his previous victory in 2016, when he won 304 electoral votes. Trump even won the so-called popular vote from Harris, meaning he also got the most votes in absolute terms. That is rare for a Republican candidate.
On top of this, the Republicans also regained control of the Senate and are on course to retain their majority in House of Representatives. In other words: Trump will find it easier to pursue his policy agenda in the coming years. We should therefore brace ourselves for another attempt on his part to revive the fossil economy. But, as Trump's previous term also proved: the world's sustainable transition is and remains inevitable.
Bad news for nature and climate
If Trump is back in power early next year, what measures on climate change can we expect from him? "First, he may just choose to withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement (again). This undermines the climate goals set internationally. Second, he is likely to bet on more fossil energy extraction again. In addition, he may try to repeal existing climate legislation in the US. A key example is Inflation Reduction Act, a stimulus package to make the US economy more sustainable that was instituted by Joe Biden. In the short term, renewable energy stocks will therefore suffer from Trump's gains, while fossil fuel stocks may actually increase in value."
Little positive to report, then, for nature and climate. De Wilde: "At the same time, it is highly unlikely that the global sustainable transition will come to a halt because of Trump's gains. Since his last term, the momentum of green policies has only accelerated. Look, for instance, at the European Union's Green Deal, China's ambition to become carbon neutral and investors' increasing interest in ESG criteria."
The sustainable transition continues
"If the United States wants to compete with the rest of the world, it will have to continue with sustainability to some extent. The efforts of US companies and financial institutions in this area are not stopping either. After all, they have to meet the sustainability requirements of customers and investors; Trump's victory does not change that. In other words, the sustainable transition will continue, despite this setback."